by Chase Wassenar
We learned a lot of lessons from watching the European Promotion tournaments these last couple of days. First, we learned that series that feature four games that are more than fifty minutes long only work if the teams we’re watching know how to rotate and close out games when opportunities arise. Next, we learned that maybe, just maybe, giving yourself only a couple of weeks to practice with your new jungler when you've only seen him in solo queue previously was a bad idea. And finally, we learned that if a Challenger team has never won a series against a good team at full strength, they’re unlikely to pull that feat off when facing the pressure of a LAN tournament and an actually solid sixth place team.
Will any of those lessons rear their heads once more as we look to North America to see which of the six teams participating will find their way into the LCS? I suppose we’ll know soon enough, but that’s not nearly as fun as making predictions about it. It’s time to go through these games one by one and test my burgeoning powers of clairvoyance (5-0 in my picks so far this week from this podcast that you should totally listen to like the wonderful person you are) once more.
LMQ v. XDG
The Challenger: LMQ is one of those teams that’s been dominant in the Challenger Scene for so long that people are already starting to root against them just to stop the hype train from completely consuming the League of Legends subreddit. Luckily for Team Lomo, the majority of the hype is warranted…as long as you put it into perspective. LMQ’s five game series against Cloud 9 Tempest made it clear that they are not invincible, but they are a talented group of players with a great top laner in Ackerman, a surprisingly underrated jungler in NoName, and a play-making mid laner in XiaoWeiXiao. Are they a perfect team? Far from it. Vasilli is still way too aggressive in the bot lane for this particular meta, and I get the feeling that LMQ tend to underestimate their opponents early in the series, as their worst losses have occurred in the opening games of a series. That said, they've got a lot of talent, and they know how to adjust on the fly. They’re a scary team, especially when compared to…
The Incumbent: While I think all the links I share are valuable and important enough to earn your attention, I really want anyone reading this to pay special attention to this one. That’s the best guy on XDG’s roster explaining the stress and fear he is facing just from the thought of having to play against LMQ with his job on the line. That’s…not a great sign. Sure, he’s the least experienced guy on the team, but given the train wreck that was XDG’s season this year, I doubt those who have been with the team from the beginning are feeling more optimistic right now. I stand by everything I wrote in that article on XDG’s mismanagement, and things have only gone downhill from there. Benny has been a nonfactor in the top lane, and mandatorycloud’s play has fallen off dramatically from where he was when he led the LCS in kills last summer. It would take a complete rejuvenation and a return to Team Vulcun form for XDG to win this series; I just don’t see it happening. Prediction: LMQ 3-1.
Cloud 9 Tempest v. Evil Geniuses
The Challenger: After hearing approximately five thousand different explanations as to how the age rule works for the Promotion matches, I believe Altec is going to be allowed to play in this series. Assuming that’s the case, this is probably the most improved Challenger team I’ve seen in North America, going from being knocked out in the first round by Skyline (now CompLexity Red) to being second only to LMQ in every series thereafter. While Altec deserves every ounce of the credit he gets, this is far from a one man squad. Yazuki has grown into this new meta to become a very solid top laner, and both Kez and Bischu have pocket champions that can be quite deadly when they get the chance to play them. My biggest concern is that Kez and Bischu’s champion pools appear quite small. Kez isn’t nearly as efficient when not playing Elise, and Bischu hasn’t consistently impressed me outside of his Nidalee play for a while now. If they get banned out, those lanes could struggle…but Altec would be free to choose what he wants. Which means…
The Incumbent: So much of this series is going to rely on the picks and bans phase. Luckily, the Evil Geniuses are a very experienced organization that has been in these high pressure situations before and tend to know exactly what to do. While his aggressive play doesn’t always work, one can’t deny Krepo has an incredible feel for the game, and his ability to strategize against Cloud 9 Tempest could be the difference here. Of course, there are big concerns with this team; they did finish seventh after all. Snoopeh has struggle to adjust to the new meta of jungle champions to the detriment of his team, and Yellowpete was probably the worst ADC in North America last split. For EG to win, InnoX and Pobelter need to carry their lanes to victory and hope that Krepo can keep the bot lane competitive enough to not burn them badly on team fights later in the game. Given one can’t expect too much from Snoopeh these days, that’s about one too many variables for me. Prediction: C9T 3-2.
CompLexity Black v. Team Coast
The Challenger: Man, remember when everyone was excited about CompLexity Black back when they were Determined Gaming last December? I certainly do. Everyone was so excited to see Westrice on a successful team that we all completely ignored the fact that he was struggling to keep up in the top lane and relying far too heavily on a streaky mid laner (Arthelon), a temperamental jungler (Brokenshard), and an above average bot lane that was hyped way beyond their actual means (ROBERTxLEE and Bubbadub). We all thought that loss to EG would be the best thing that happened to them, as Pr0lly was a sizeable upgrade on paper, but as the great Yahtzee Croshaw once told us, “Paper is a flimsy thing that turns clear when you rub grease on it,” and that’s certainly been the case this split. It took this team five games to beat a Curse Academy team that could adequately be described as ‘DontMashMe and four guys who would have been brought up to the LCS like Sheep months ago if they had that level of talent.’ I don’t think they stand much of a chance against…
The Incumbent: Call me a fanboy if you wish (I’ve been a fan since they were Team Dynamic back in early 2012), but this is pretty much the perfect match-up for this Coast team. ZionSpartan practically lives for the moment he can hard carry against a top laner that’s way out of his depth, and as arguably the second best mid laner in North America, Shiphtur shouldn’t have a problem against Pr0lly, who’s been CompLexity Black’s most consistent player. Coast isn’t perfect: Wizfuijin and Daydreamin haven’t lived up to their potential, and NintendudeX tends to do more damage than good nowadays. But hasn’t Coast’s path to success this split been based on the ability of their two best carries to, well, carry? In the long run, Coast will have to make some changes to the roster if they want to be relevant on the World Stage once more, but what they have already should be enough for now. Prediction: Coast 3-1.
Chase Wassenar is the Lead Editor and Founder of the Red Shirt Crew Blog and Podcast Network. He’s excited to find out if all of his Challenger Series scouting has paid off. You can read his other work at Less Than Legends, subscribe to his weekly podcast, and contact him by email at theredshirtcrew@gmail.com, on Twitter at @RedShirtKing or in the comments below.
We learned a lot of lessons from watching the European Promotion tournaments these last couple of days. First, we learned that series that feature four games that are more than fifty minutes long only work if the teams we’re watching know how to rotate and close out games when opportunities arise. Next, we learned that maybe, just maybe, giving yourself only a couple of weeks to practice with your new jungler when you've only seen him in solo queue previously was a bad idea. And finally, we learned that if a Challenger team has never won a series against a good team at full strength, they’re unlikely to pull that feat off when facing the pressure of a LAN tournament and an actually solid sixth place team.
Will any of those lessons rear their heads once more as we look to North America to see which of the six teams participating will find their way into the LCS? I suppose we’ll know soon enough, but that’s not nearly as fun as making predictions about it. It’s time to go through these games one by one and test my burgeoning powers of clairvoyance (5-0 in my picks so far this week from this podcast that you should totally listen to like the wonderful person you are) once more.
LMQ v. XDG
The Challenger: LMQ is one of those teams that’s been dominant in the Challenger Scene for so long that people are already starting to root against them just to stop the hype train from completely consuming the League of Legends subreddit. Luckily for Team Lomo, the majority of the hype is warranted…as long as you put it into perspective. LMQ’s five game series against Cloud 9 Tempest made it clear that they are not invincible, but they are a talented group of players with a great top laner in Ackerman, a surprisingly underrated jungler in NoName, and a play-making mid laner in XiaoWeiXiao. Are they a perfect team? Far from it. Vasilli is still way too aggressive in the bot lane for this particular meta, and I get the feeling that LMQ tend to underestimate their opponents early in the series, as their worst losses have occurred in the opening games of a series. That said, they've got a lot of talent, and they know how to adjust on the fly. They’re a scary team, especially when compared to…
The Incumbent: While I think all the links I share are valuable and important enough to earn your attention, I really want anyone reading this to pay special attention to this one. That’s the best guy on XDG’s roster explaining the stress and fear he is facing just from the thought of having to play against LMQ with his job on the line. That’s…not a great sign. Sure, he’s the least experienced guy on the team, but given the train wreck that was XDG’s season this year, I doubt those who have been with the team from the beginning are feeling more optimistic right now. I stand by everything I wrote in that article on XDG’s mismanagement, and things have only gone downhill from there. Benny has been a nonfactor in the top lane, and mandatorycloud’s play has fallen off dramatically from where he was when he led the LCS in kills last summer. It would take a complete rejuvenation and a return to Team Vulcun form for XDG to win this series; I just don’t see it happening. Prediction: LMQ 3-1.
Cloud 9 Tempest v. Evil Geniuses
The Challenger: After hearing approximately five thousand different explanations as to how the age rule works for the Promotion matches, I believe Altec is going to be allowed to play in this series. Assuming that’s the case, this is probably the most improved Challenger team I’ve seen in North America, going from being knocked out in the first round by Skyline (now CompLexity Red) to being second only to LMQ in every series thereafter. While Altec deserves every ounce of the credit he gets, this is far from a one man squad. Yazuki has grown into this new meta to become a very solid top laner, and both Kez and Bischu have pocket champions that can be quite deadly when they get the chance to play them. My biggest concern is that Kez and Bischu’s champion pools appear quite small. Kez isn’t nearly as efficient when not playing Elise, and Bischu hasn’t consistently impressed me outside of his Nidalee play for a while now. If they get banned out, those lanes could struggle…but Altec would be free to choose what he wants. Which means…
The Incumbent: So much of this series is going to rely on the picks and bans phase. Luckily, the Evil Geniuses are a very experienced organization that has been in these high pressure situations before and tend to know exactly what to do. While his aggressive play doesn’t always work, one can’t deny Krepo has an incredible feel for the game, and his ability to strategize against Cloud 9 Tempest could be the difference here. Of course, there are big concerns with this team; they did finish seventh after all. Snoopeh has struggle to adjust to the new meta of jungle champions to the detriment of his team, and Yellowpete was probably the worst ADC in North America last split. For EG to win, InnoX and Pobelter need to carry their lanes to victory and hope that Krepo can keep the bot lane competitive enough to not burn them badly on team fights later in the game. Given one can’t expect too much from Snoopeh these days, that’s about one too many variables for me. Prediction: C9T 3-2.
CompLexity Black v. Team Coast
The Challenger: Man, remember when everyone was excited about CompLexity Black back when they were Determined Gaming last December? I certainly do. Everyone was so excited to see Westrice on a successful team that we all completely ignored the fact that he was struggling to keep up in the top lane and relying far too heavily on a streaky mid laner (Arthelon), a temperamental jungler (Brokenshard), and an above average bot lane that was hyped way beyond their actual means (ROBERTxLEE and Bubbadub). We all thought that loss to EG would be the best thing that happened to them, as Pr0lly was a sizeable upgrade on paper, but as the great Yahtzee Croshaw once told us, “Paper is a flimsy thing that turns clear when you rub grease on it,” and that’s certainly been the case this split. It took this team five games to beat a Curse Academy team that could adequately be described as ‘DontMashMe and four guys who would have been brought up to the LCS like Sheep months ago if they had that level of talent.’ I don’t think they stand much of a chance against…
The Incumbent: Call me a fanboy if you wish (I’ve been a fan since they were Team Dynamic back in early 2012), but this is pretty much the perfect match-up for this Coast team. ZionSpartan practically lives for the moment he can hard carry against a top laner that’s way out of his depth, and as arguably the second best mid laner in North America, Shiphtur shouldn’t have a problem against Pr0lly, who’s been CompLexity Black’s most consistent player. Coast isn’t perfect: Wizfuijin and Daydreamin haven’t lived up to their potential, and NintendudeX tends to do more damage than good nowadays. But hasn’t Coast’s path to success this split been based on the ability of their two best carries to, well, carry? In the long run, Coast will have to make some changes to the roster if they want to be relevant on the World Stage once more, but what they have already should be enough for now. Prediction: Coast 3-1.
Chase Wassenar is the Lead Editor and Founder of the Red Shirt Crew Blog and Podcast Network. He’s excited to find out if all of his Challenger Series scouting has paid off. You can read his other work at Less Than Legends, subscribe to his weekly podcast, and contact him by email at theredshirtcrew@gmail.com, on Twitter at @RedShirtKing or in the comments below.
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